Why 2012 is Not the Year to Fear – The Other Half

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I have compiled the rest of my trends below. How am I doing?

INDIA TAKES CENTER STAGE:  Under headings like “Is India the new Dubai” and “Is Mumbai the new Cambridge”, the researchers are clearly very high on India.  While India continues to have fairly strong economic growth, rising costs of labor, growing income disparity and slow progress on infrastructure etc. this will continue to pose challenges.  The geo-political confluence that India represents as a foil against China and the unrest in Pakistan will continue to influence the critical role that India plays.  Indian service/goods providers are already migrating delivery/production to smaller cities and other regional countries.

Value Opportunity:  Develop an “arbitrage” model that allows you to identify the entry and exit criteria (either supply or market domains) in countries like India and provide that type of intelligence inside your company.  Look for talent in India as schools like Harvard are setting up shop there!

RED SCARE 2.0 – CHINA:  Interestingly enough, the authors mention China in a number of different trends but the one that caught my eye was the fact that this type of thinking about China as an adversary similar to the Red scare is becoming more and more of a reality in people’s mind.  It is already driving the political discourse during the current election cycle.  US foreign and defense policy is also now influenced by this.  This is somewhat of a reaction to needing to find a “culprit” for our current malaise.

Value Opportunity:  Help your company see through this “cloud” and exploit opportunities being created by illogical reaction by others.

MEN ARE IN TRANSITION:  The headline is a composite of many different points raised by the research which all point to the fact that ”men” are in decline, and apparently they don’t make men like they used to, “men are the new women” and “where are the men” – you get the point!  I think there is clearly truth in the fact that the gender defined roles are changing and changing pretty rapidly.  This will continue to drive how consumer decisions are made but more importantly, it will also have an impact on other decisions as well (social, political etc.).  The most critical area where this will have an impact is in the war for talent.

Value Opportunity:  You must incorporate this trend in your Talent Management strategy.

GDP DEAD! – LONG LIVE GROSS NATIONAL HAPPINESS (GNH)!: While this may sound like a funny headline, researchers point to fundamental flaw in using GDP as a metric but seriously suggest that a better metric might be Gross National Happiness (GNH).  The argument being that material possessions don’t always bring the greatest happiness to people. A renewed focus on health and family life could change the way people see work and alter ideas on prosperity. After all, the founding fathers made a point of “pursuit of happiness”

Value Opportunity:  All kidding aside, this dependency on old metrics (GDP) that are easily quantifiable is a very dangerous dependency.  We should be identifying new metrics like Value Drivers (GNH) that may not be easily measurable but are far greater in their impact.

GOING LOCAL:  This again is a hybrid trend from various parts of the research but the essence is that people are tired of living their lives “globally” and more and more are looking for intimate exchanges that are more “local” in nature and will actually go online to facilitate that.  Marketers will be responding to this phenomenon in creative ways.  Look for this to start impacting our clothes, food, travel, social interactions etc.  “Local will be the new Global” as the researcher suggests.

Value Opportunity:  Supply Chains may also have to become more “local” in response to consumers and you should start assessing if this impacts you.  People will also make career choices based on this so consider impact on Talent Management.

Which trends do you think are most likely to come true?

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Now let’s see which come true!

Regards,

Dalip

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Dalip Raheja
Dalip Raheja is President and CEO of The Mpower Group (TMG). Dalip has over 30 years of experience managing large organizations and change initiatives. He has worked across the spectrums of supply chain management, strategic sourcing, and management consulting.
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