War for Talent is a Statistical Certainty, Not Just Hyperbole!

Bangladesh is on the verge of a shrinking population!!  Wow – what has this world come to and how did we get here?  According to Doug Sanders, we might be at a tipping point in global population and may have hit “peak people”, just like peak oil (past the declining point of global supply-limn).  He bases his assertions on a number of points which, if you agree with him, has tectonic (pardon the hyperbole) implications.

“People around the world are living longer and having fewer children” according to Sanders.  Everyone remembers the population control policies in countries like China, India etc. etc. which limited the number of children families could have.  Over time, this has led to an imbalance.  Basic needs are being met better than before leading to longer life cycles.  Access to birth control, increased education, more economic independence and a general higher empowerment for women has also led to lower birth rates.

Here are some additional factoids from Sanders:

  • Today, Canada has 5 working age people for every retiree – in 20 years, it will be down to 3!
  • In Japan, retirees will outnumber working age people in this century!!
  • Today 11% of the global population is over 60, in 25 years it will double with a larger component that are over 80!!!
  • In China, 12% are over 60 and in 20 years, that number will be 28%!!!!

The trend is the same globally everywhere you look.  And we are not talking about something that will occur in the nebulous future.  This is already occurring and the full impact will be felt in less than two decades.  The impact on social service costs will be significant (double, triple or even more) and it will be financially supported by a shrinking working population.  A double whammy if you would.  While stronger and bigger economies might be able to absorb these changes, others may not fare as well?  This probably explains some of the push to increase retirement ages all across the globe.

A shrinking working population that has higher economic expectations and has to support a growing number of retires will also demand higher compensation.  Thus, labor cost differentials are already sinking both in China (manufacturing) and India (services) as an example.  If you start normalizing labor costs and eliminating that arbitrage, the implications for Sourcing and Supply Chain organizations are very significant.  For organizations that are leaders/early adopters in Supply Chain arbitrage, that means reassessing their global sourcing strategies and start identifying and planning their next move now.  Change in demographics will also drive the demand side of the equation in terms of what people are looking to buy and who will be making those buying decisions.

The other serious implication is the shift in the supply and demand equation for talent.  People will not be chasing jobs– jobs will be chasing people.  Reverse auctions?  Imagine a situation where every prospective employee has 5-6 jobs to choose from.  And by the way, selecting a job is no longer just an economic decision as we pointed out.  How your organization rates on CSR issues is a bigger factor so you cannot just increase the compensation and hope to win the war for talent.  And this situation is already occurring.  Graduates from the top business schools in India most always graduate with multiple job offers from the leading global companies in the world.  If your Talent Management strategy does not have “peak people” baked in the equation, you may be assuming some significant risk in the very near future.

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Supply & Demand Chain Executive Honor Dalip Raheja and Anne Kohler as 2012 Provider Pros to Know

Dalip Raheja (President and CEO) and Anne Kohler (EVP and COO) have been honored by Supply & Demand Chain Executive magazine as 2012 Provider Pros. This is the seventh time Anne and Dalip have been listed.

The Provider Pros to Know list honors individuals from software firms and service providers, consultancies or academia, who have helped their supply chain clients or the supply chain community at large prepare to meet business challenges.

As founding partners of The Mpower Group (TMG), Anne and Dalip have extensive experience in Strategic Sourcing and  Supply Chain Management, Competency Based Talent Management and Accelerating Strategic Transformations. Both are known as thought leaders within the community and are active speakers and writers. Their efforts through TMG have helped make the sourcing and supply chain organizations of Fortune 500 companies a competitive advantage  and have resulted in multimillion dollar savings.  Their relentless focus on shifting from TCO to Value, Talent Development and Change Management continues to position them as developers of Next Practices, not just Best Practices

Dalip Raheja states, “Anne and I are honored to be recognized as thought leaders in this space, and the acknowledgement comes as a welcome addition to the seven7 past recognitions as Providers to Know. We intend to work towards achieve this honor again and hope to continue to be leaders within the industry.”

“Our annual list of Provider Pros to Know highlights the many thought-leaders who are helping to shape the supply chain industry and advance supply chain as a respected discipline in the enterprise,” said Barry Hochfelder, editor of Supply & Demand Chain Executive. “Their efforts in developing the tools, processes and knowledge base necessary for supply chain transformation, and in promoting new approaches to supply chain enablement, have earned them a place on this year’s Provider Pros listing.”

About Supply & Demand Chain Executive

Supply & Demand Chain Executive is the executive’s user manual for successful supply and demand chain transformation, utilizing hard-hitting analysis, viewpoints and unbiased case studies to steer executives and supply management professionals through the complicated, yet critical, world of supply and demand chain enablement to gain competitive advantage. Visit us at www.SDCExec.com.

 

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What is Your Personal Best?

The New York Yankees!  Rafael Nadal!  Tiger Woods!  Lionel Messi!  Itzhak Perlman!  Ernest Hemingway!  What does this list have in common?  We’ll get back to that later.  The question I have for you is simple.  Are you at the top of your game in your “sport”….meaning are you the Tiger Woods of Sourcing/Supply Chain??  Can you take over a game like Messi from Barca and re-define the way the game is played?  Can you play the violin like Perlman?

I just finished reading an article by Atul Gawande in the The New Yorker called “Personal Best”.  For those of you that don’t know him, he is a renowned surgeon and a writer.  His most recent book, “The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right,” got rave reviews from Malcolm Gladwell who said it was “powerful and thought-provoking.”  Atul’s basic premise is this – “no matter how well prepared people are in their formative years, few can achieve and maintain their best performance on their own”.  He goes on to argue that he reached a plateau where it was obvious that he was not improving at all as a surgeon and what radical steps he had to take to fix that.  Turns out that the physical aspects of doing the surgery are fairly easy to master. Doing surgery is no more physically difficult than writing in cursive. Surgical mastery is about familiarity and judgment. You learn the problems that can occur during a particular procedure or with a particular condition, and you learn how to either prevent or respond to those problems.”  The point being that learning the “process” is the simplest part of the equation.

He noticed that over time, even with more and more practice of the process he had learnt, “My rates of complications moved steadily lower and lower. And then, a couple of years ago, they didn’t. It started to seem that the only direction things could go from here was the wrong one.”  So clearly, even though he had been through medical school and learnt the surgical process, had been very successful at applying the process, over time his results were declining.  In researching this phenomenon, he reached a startling conclusion – “ no matter how well prepared people are in their formative years, few can achieve and maintain their best performance on their own.”

And the answer he found in talking to many world renowned high performers was coaching. “Élite performers, researchers say, must engage in “deliberate practice”—…. You have to work at what you’re not good at……But most people do not know where to start or how to proceed. Expertise, as the formula goes, requires going from unconscious incompetence to conscious incompetence to conscious competence and finally to unconscious competence. The coach provides the outside eyes and ears, and makes you aware of where you’re falling short “

Itshak Perlman has his wife (accomplished musician) as a coach…“Her ear provided external judgment…She is very tough, and that’s what I like about it,” Perlman says. He doesn’t always trust his response when he listens to recordings of his performances.  When Renée Fleming (great soprano) is preparing for a concert, she practices with her vocal coach for ninety minutes or so several times a week.  The Kansas Coaching Project, an effort aimed at improving teachers’ skills in the classroom, quickly realized that “Workshops led teachers to use new skills in the classroom only ten per cent of the time. Even when a practice session with demonstrations and personal feedback was added, fewer than twenty per cent made the change. But when coaching was introduced—when a colleague watched them try the new skills in their own classroom and provided suggestions—adoption rates passed ninety per cent”.

Gawande goes on to cite many other examples to support the hypothesis and then cites his own example of inviting a coach to observe him in surgery.  “That one twenty-minute discussion gave me more to consider and work on than I’d had in the past five years.”  Imagine that!!!  A world class surgeon who has been practicing for decades now has a check list of improvements??

So if you are truly interested in achieving your personal best AND getting others in your organization to achieve peak performance, don’t forget the absolute critical role coaching plays and make sure you incorporate that into any Talent Management strategy that you might be developing.

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The Unintended Consequence of Efficiency

The Internet along with our iPads, Kindles, Androids, iPhones, laptops, etc. have made our lives infinitely more efficient over the last several years.  Twitter and Facebook give us access to information we didn’t even know we needed.  And who needs an encyclopedia when we have Google search and Wikipedia. We can do almost EVERYTHING virtually through technology – communicate, shop, learn, bank, pay bills, manage investments, etc. and the list goes ON and ON.  Our lives have been made immeasurably easier by our access to technology, almost to the point that we cannot function without it.  Most would agree that this has been a positive step forward and the “intended consequence” of creating efficiency has been accomplished.  BUT I would argue that the unintended consequence of having our entire lives exposed to the world is one that is rarely discussed and can have some serious and even devastating implications.

In an article titled “Google Defends New Privacy Policy” by The Wall Street Journal, it is apparent that we are being constantly monitored and followed when we use any Google product (and don’t we all?).  According to Google, this is being done to make our lives easier, not to mention making Google infinitely richer through increased advertising dollars.  What many users translate this into is receiving targeted ads every time you go to the internet – annoying but not necessarily devastating.  Right?  Wrong!  You are clearly being followed just as if someone was stalking you in a shopping mall.  It is an invasion of privacy and is pretty darn scary.

An article came out yesterday in Business Week entitled “Microsoft Ads Bid to Capitalize on Google Privacy Backlash”.  In the article, Microsoft Corp. is aiming to take advantage of a backlash against Google’s privacy policy changes by rolling out new ads that say its rival is risking users’ privacy to squeeze more revenue out of them.  Will Microsoft really be any better?

Facebook, by the way, may soon be facing the same issue.  In an article in the Daily Caller entitled “Facebook Surrenders Its Privacy In IPO Documents”,  Facebook  openly admits that it has concerns that both the U.S.  and Europe may impose tougher privacy rules that would make it more difficult for the company to stockpile information about its users.  Everyone is doing it!!!

So what does all this mean for the user?  Be careful!!!  In our eagerness to share excessive amounts of personal information from our daily/hourly goings-on in Facebook to our everyday (don’t even think about it anymore) transactions, we are opening ourselves to Trouble (yes, with a capital T).   Many negative unintended consequences such as cyber bullying, robberies, cheating, identity theft, reputation bashing, etc. are all a result of making our lives more “efficient”.  As a recent victim of one of these unintended consequences, identity theft, I can tell you that trying to fix the problem FAR exceeds the efficiency that was initially created.  By the way, my problems were not caused by a local hooligan but by a VERY sharp hacker (most likely tens of thousands of miles away) that helped himself to ALL my personal informationBut for the internet, I would never have crossed paths with this individual (this is an assumption since this person will most likely never be caught).  As a result, I have fallen back to the good old U.S. mail, writing checks that actually require a signature and no longer do any “transactions” on-line.  Inefficient maybe, safer YES!

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